The Recession is over today
October 29, 2009
The recession is over, so why does everyone feel like it’s still getting worse? I figured I would explain to you what’s really wrong with calling this recession over.
They measure it from Quarter to Quarter, meaning every 90 days they look to see if the economy has improved from the previous 90 days. The problem with this is that it’s too short of a time period. It takes me more than 90 days to get paid from some of my Advertising Agency clients in this economy.
Unemployment isn’t actually a factor in measuring the end of a recession, but for simplicity sake we are going to use it in this example. So let’s say the unemployment rate is 5% .. then over the course of 2 years it goes to 11% …. if one month they say that the unemployment rate went to 10.9%, the recession is over…
Yea we’re near 11% unemployment… yes we are over double the unemployment rate as we were just 900 days ago.. but the recession is over.
90 days is not enough to measure if the economy is out of the great recession or not. The story from Reuters is misleading and it’s based on false data. Call us when the figures are close to where we were at the the start of the recession, not when we are showing a .000001% improvement from the bottom.
This recession isn’t over until we are back where we were back in 2006, 2007 .. with 5% unemployment, housing foreclosures at minimal and banking bailouts are not the norm.
If we need a stimulus plan, it means the recession isn’t over. Enjoy the false data.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year, beating market expectations, as consumer spending and new home-building rebounded, signaling the end of the worst recession in 70 years.
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