The Web 2.0 now called Bubble 2.0
August 29, 2007
After reading the often wrong regarding the Web 2.0 bubble then reading the responses on Digg a firm that many consider the definition of Web 2.0 you start to see a pattern.
The pattern is that Dvorak is right, this is gonna crash.. and it’s gonna crash hard. The problem is that he never addressed why. Even though 2 years ago Tim O’Reilly addressed this.
It’s almost a simple translation script could convert web 1.0 to web 2.0 (as well as bubble 1.0 to bubble 2.0)
The Web 2.0 community is saying ‘it’s not going to crash’ well they are in for a rude awaking. This happened 8 years ago, and it will happen again. Below is directly from Tim’s post.
| Web 1.0 | Web 2.0 | |
|---|---|---|
| DoubleClick | -> | Google AdSense |
| Ofoto | -> | Flickr |
| Akamai | -> | BitTorrent |
| mp3.com | -> | Napster |
| Britannica Online | -> | Wikipedia |
| personal websites | -> | blogging |
| evite | -> | upcoming.org and EVDB |
| domain name speculation | -> | search engine optimization |
| page views | -> | cost per click |
| screen scraping | -> | web services |
| publishing | -> | participation |
| content management systems | -> | wikis |
| directories (taxonomy) | -> | tagging (“folksonomy”) |
| stickiness | -> | syndication |
This is why it will crash - The vast majority of these Web 2.0 startups will fail … period. They suffer from the same problems that the ones in 2000 crash had, lack of business model. I am going to point out a few examples of sites that really do not have a strong business model and could be in trouble, actually better said, I am going to point out the only real viable winners of any downturn. In the Bubble 1.0 there were really only a handful of winners that survived intact to this day. Yahoo, Ebay, Amazon and a few others. The thousand of others that crashed, went bankrupt, or sold their assets for a fraction of what investors paid for are what would be left.
I am going to question a few business models out there, and each of these feel free to argue with us if we are right or wrong, but as a Bubble 1.0 veteran, I think I have a leg to stand on regarding this.
Advertising Revenue models are still based on the same concept as is always has for print, TV and billboards. You are going to need tons of quality traffic to your site to make tons of money. period.
This means that a few of the top tier sites such as Digg , and and Google (and it’s YouTube division) have a very good chance of living past any bubble pop. Other sites that do have a chance would be Facebook and Yahoo (Yahoo is questionable as even now their margins appear to be shrinking in the face of the Google onslaught).
The point I am trying to make is that the lion’s share of traffic heads towards these mega sites, and smaller sites are going to face a problem where it just takes a link somewhere on one of these bigger sites with the anchor text saying something similar to what your Web 2.0 site does, then you are going to watch your traffic vanish.
If you think I am kidding, Threadwatch.Org , perhaps one of the leading Internet Marketing Outlets shut down citing Digg as the reason.
The Digg Homepage
Automated community driven news sites further lessened the need for and value proposition of this site.
You should make your advertising model highly specific to an area these larger sites won’t venture into, because they second they do your business is over. The problem is with sites like digg, it literally takes a hyperlink on the top for a new category, and they start a virtual industry overnight with 2000 competitors trying to get the Digg Traffic with an 8 dollar domain name and 5 dollar a month hosting account. 1990 of these sites will fail, but not before eating up most of your advertising revenue.
Digg could not only shut down your webserver, it could shut down your business as well.
This leaves the rest of us, the Web 2.0 companies that are not advertising based. The field of course just became much smaller. The sites that collect revenue for a service or a product.
The problem I am having is however is that they are not Web 2.0 websites, firms that collect money for a service or product are called companies.
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Ad Agency Not Needed
August 29, 2007
Sometimes we see firms that sell products such as a water softener or a set of luggage locks and wonder if an ad agency is really needed for them?
The answer is really dependant on the type of company and the type of marketing agency.
If the company is an innovative startup firm like this pubmed mashup or an established firm like this electronic medical records firm or a leading beauty school or even a company that runs a leading directory of bed and breakfast or shows online opinions.
The results are not the same.
The firms listed above do not have the same needs as a firm like IBM or Microsoft in other words, they are not planning on burning money, they are looking for an ROI on their marketing dollars. This is generally where Marketing Directors run into problems. Some ad agencies charge an arm and a leg, others just charge a leg.
You have to figure out the brand you want, and pick the agency to match. The problem is that all bigger firms assume that the bigger agencies are where the innovative ideas are. This is a huge problem…. it’s why most marketing campaigns fail.
The larger ad agencies are sophomoric at best in some of the more innovative marketing techniques such as search engine optimization and social media optimization.
In fact they are downright backwards. They have no idea of how to use Digg and hardly have a grasp on youtube but boy will they bill you for their non-skills.
Our feeling is that there is a massive change, and that change is currently watching you in red and black… the fact that you are reading this on tribbleagency.com rather than reading it in some print media should by itself re-arrange your budget and spend it online.
If you are reading our message online.. shouldn’t your clients be as well?
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Hulu opens doors for beta users with threats of litigation - bans users to right of trial
August 29, 2007
EDIT: It appears that HULU Changed the TOS after Reported by Tribble Agency. Here is the screenshot of what they had up.
Hulu actually has a chance, but not if they open their doors with threats. Hulu, owned by News Corp and NBC Universal is proud to announce, In the typical MPAA / RIAA fashion the following:
In short the below states the following:
1. You waive you right to trial by using Hulu. You cannot view the content of the site without agreeing to this term
2. You are not even allowed to right click and make wallpaper any images or content you find on the site.
3. They make the RIAA and MPAA look ‘easy to get along with’
You are also strictly prohibited from creating works or materials that derive from or are based on the materials contained in this Site including, without limitation, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, on-line postcards and greeting cards, unlicensed merchandise and mash-ups, unless you have obtained the prior written consent of Hulu or unless it is expressly permitted by this Site in each instance. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative materials are sold, bartered or given away.
It then goes on to wonderful statements like this:
This Agreement operates to the fullest extent permissible by law. If any provision of this Agreement is unlawful, void or unenforceable, that provision is deemed severable from this Agreement and does not affect the validity and enforceability of any remaining provisions.
This Agreement is governed by, and construed in accordance with, the laws of the State of California without giving effect to any principles of conflicts of law. You agree to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of the State of California or, if appropriate, the United States District Court for the Central District of California for resolution of any dispute, action or proceeding arising in connection with this Agreement or your use or non-use of the Site, and you further irrevocably waive any right you may have to trial by jury in any such dispute, action or proceeding.
Out of the handful of pages viewable, a full 33% of them have threats of lawsuits, and to boot you waive your right to trial just by visiting the site.
They never learn do they?
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Yooter InterActive Marketing Agency in the News
August 28, 2007
MINERSVILLE - the reason the Web site for Empire Beauty School, Pottsville, is ranked third on Google among the 181,000,000 sites you can find by typing in “beauty school”
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Advertising Agency Web 2.0 Press Release
August 28, 2007
New York, New York - Company XXXX is proud to announce the launch of XXXX.com. A new mashup of website XXXX.com and XXXX.com.
We have secured $6.3 million in funding from venture capital firm A-B and C. Our model is provide and deploy collaborative web-readiness to individuals and firms that leverage scalable markets.
Time Tested, our model has proven to extend real-time systems and scale e-business functionalities to the point of allowing user generated content to generate wireless web-readiness for our mobile division.
CEO XXXX XXXXX of XXXX.com stated ‘We have built a system that allows us to harness efficient models and transform turn-key convergence of mashable information for others to syndicate.’
Venture Capital partner, XXXX XXXX of XXXX.com stated ‘Their ability to exploit turn-key content allows them to cultivate leading-edge convergence to the marketplace’.
Advertising Agency CEO, XXXX XXXX that was hired by XXXX.com noted ‘our marketing plan will allow them evolve turn-key functionalities and revolutionize seamless users’
For more information please visit XXXX.com , the leading firm to enhance transparent web-readiness.
This press release was crafted with assistance using the time tested Bull $!ikt Generator
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Kevin is cool!
August 24, 2007
Kevin is cool!!!!!
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NASA.GOV SECURITY FLAW : Impact Probability of 99942 Apophis moved to 99%
August 23, 2007
In a move that even the worst Ad Agency on earth wouldn’t try, e-mails are flying around exposing a security flaw on Nasa’s Website.
The below e-mail was forwarded to me as I run one of the larger forums out that discusses breaking news.
=======================
NASA CHANGED THE IMPACT PROBABILITY OF 99942 APOPHIS MOVED TO 99%
=======================
This e-mail has been flying around, but it’s not true.. the variables on the Nasa.Gov site could be changed to anything you put on the URL.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?988.6e-03 <— that shows this 99% chance of hitting earth
but this:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?88.6e-03 <— now shows an 8% chance.
The point is we could make it anything you want. Nasa, this is a security issue that needs to be resolved asap.
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Apple TV wins the Blu-ray vs HD-DVD war
August 21, 2007
HD-DVD pays $150 million to ‘win the war’ against Blu-ray.
Let us be the first to say that it’s a big waste of money.  Not because HD-DVD might win, it’s because they are bidding and paying for an already obsolete technology.  The winner is Apple TV.
Do you think in the next several years it will take to settle this war out that the world will stand still? Or do you think that an itunes like site will show up allowing full HD downloads legally of all your favorate movies?
Broadcast the HD Movie via a Wi-Fi network to my HD TV and bingo…. people will be asking ‘what was Blu-ray or HD-DVD’ in a few years. The technology already exists for this, Apple is already putting it together and will continue to increase this to HD quality.  The pricing for this will go down to the point where it will be on par with an HD-DVD player.  Then you have it..  A war that was lost by both the winner and loser.
Does it really matter if the TRS-80 or the Commodore 64 win when everyone is starting to buy a dual core?
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Digg Picture Day - Thursday Aug 23 2007
August 21, 2007
Thursday Aug 23 2007 - Digg Picture Day
We feel that Thursday should be declared Digg Picture day, the idea behind it is to just submit pictures and pretty much only pictures for that day. If all the results on page 1 of digg are only pictures, maybe they would get the ‘picture’ and have a pictures section.
I want to believe that this will work.
For my picture directly from my office. You can of course click on the picture a high res version.
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The 302 HiJack is back - as well as other sites that abuse Google
August 17, 2007
This is a virtual list of sites that ‘hog up’ Google serps and should be banned, or at least treated differently.
1. Any Site that abuses a 302 redirect - As it stands now, the results are weighing in the billions as the 302 Google HiJack is back and back in full force. This means that you can 302 redirect to any website and gain their rankings within days. Solution: Treat 302′s like 301′s
2. Alibaba - weighing in at 33.4 million spammed results, heavy third level name abuse, domain cloaking and wide violations of Google Guidelines. Solution : ban from Google
3. Experts Exchange - weighing in at 1.3 million results. Heavy cloaking and overall abuse of Google’s serps serving differing content (hidden in CSS) between the end user and what Google sees. Solution : ban from Google
4. Wikipedia - weighing in at 12.4 million results. An odd ball in this list. Wikipedia really didn’t do anything wrong but generally speaking it’s a disservice to the end user. Wikipedia has a 92-94% page one ranking rate. Meaning that for 92-94% of the topics, they rank on page 1 in Google. People are not searching for the definition or else they would of went directly to Wikipedia. Solution: Wikipedia should be treated like Google Groups, and get their own tab. and removed from the general index.
5. Whitehouse.Gov - weighing in at 110,000 results. We are kidding, somewhat.. it’s not that we want the whitehouse banned, it’s that they virtually want their site banned. It’s also worth noting that under President George Bush, the exclusion list has grown 3000% Solution: address the robots.txt so that you can list the pages you want included as compared to list the pages you want excluded.
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