7 reasons NOT to count on an Economic recovery
May 29, 2009
Things are bad, unemployment is hitting double digits in many metro areas, nationally we are hovering at about 10% with the official record, with the real unemployment rate at 15.8 based upon the U-6 Federal Data (the real unemployment rate)
1 – Let’s face it, most Americans are in debt up to their eyeballs.
Stanley Johnson is the typical American in the Typical American family. He has to pay off that house, car, golf clubs and that lawmower… he bought them 4 years ago, and still is making payments on it and cannot afford another new set of stuff to buy.
2 – With 1 out 8 Americans in foreclosure or skipping payments on their house due to job losses, the banks are reporting these things to the credit agencies, leaving 15% or more of the population with ugly credit scores and unable to buy anything in the future on credit. At one point its foreseeable that laws will be passed saying “you can’t count any negative credit items from 2007 to 2012″ for loan applications.
3 – The federal reserve printed off massive amounts of money calling it a pretty name “Quantitative easing” but see this is the problem, what money goes into the money supply eventually has to leave it or you face massive inflation. When the time comes, they are going to send intrest rates out the roof to suck the money back… and that is going to increase the cost of credit sky high and send the country right back into a massive recession.
4 – China and other countries are re-thinking using the US dollar as the currency of reserve, at one point we are going to get our credit card cut off, hence forcing us to actually cut back on spending. That will be one ugly day… and that day is on it’s way quick.
5 – College students can’t get college loans – Due to the credit crunch, students are finding themselves not able to get college loans. This is nailing a generation of individuals that would otherwise be able to increase their potential and in the next 20 years perhaps figure a way for us get out of this mess, but alas that future inventor that if given a chance might invent something dramatic that will allow this country to take the lead in several industries now has to report to McDonalds for work for the duration, denying him or her that chance to fix this mess.
6 – Since we borrowed so much money, that money has to be paid back in the form of higher taxes, those dollars were to be used for research and development in 2018, not paying China back for plastic toys sold at Walmart that we bought in 2006. This will suck money out of the economy so fast that the US won’t be able to buy more stuff to spur the economy… most of our budget is going to be allocated to mailing intrest only checks to China.
7 – Technologically stagnate – let’s face it, we are using the same basic combustion engine burning dinosaur bones that we used 100 years ago. Yes, the internet progressed, but when you really think about it, not so much in the past 10 years with the vast majority of innovation being almost solely limited to increasing and improving already available 10 year old technology. (such as broadband access, smart phones, etc).. and no, limiting a form to 140 characters isn’t considered a technological breakthrough…
Ask many people on the street, and you’ll hear the same thing that in 1999 we were doing better than 2009. Take a look at GM circa 1999 vs 2009…. and it will start to sink in.
Look how the world changed from 1989 to 1999, then look how the world changed from 1999 to 2009… something slowed down.. and slowed down dramatically.
The virtual reality world simulated by the Matrix resembles human civilization around the turn of the 21st century (this time period was chosen because it is supposedly the pinnacle of human civilization). Perhaps Agent Smith was right.
Murdoch says “The future is online” ? huh? really?
May 29, 2009
News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch said “the future of newspapers is digital, but it may be 10 to 15 years before readers go fully electronic”. Something about the people not seeing what is happening to them in real time.
The problem is that these individuals don’t fully understand the rate of adoption, and just how fast things are moving forward. I think he needs to understand that this happened 15 years ago… and in aggregate he is literally 3 decades off … 30 years..
About 10-15 years ago, people started reading online in mass numbers… circa early 1990’s when they hit their dialups and started reading news on AOL or Compuserve or whatever content provider they had at the time..
Now the rate is nearing 100% … in 15 years from now kids will ask “they used to chop down trees to deliver ink to your house for news?”
You’re taking a 30 year span that Murdoch is stating, I’m arguing that this took place 15 years ago… and he’s “predicting” it will take place 15 years from now.
Epic disconnect between the reality on the ground and what he is stating, no wonder these newspapers are going into bankruptcy one after another….
That was the last newspaper printed prior to people finding out about the news faster on radio, TV or online.
TM Advertising reportedly losing business at dramatic rate
May 28, 2009
This lead just came into the tip-box regarding ad agency TM Advertising, evidently the source is stating that TM Advertising has went from an $850,000,000 dollar firm to less than $200,000,000.
Also the part that hurts is that they have been firing people right and left.
Below is the complete lead we got:
FYI – With the loss of the $200 million Nationwide account, TM Advertising in
Dallas has lost another major client and now is in the process of slashing over
50 positions – many are very talented and don’t deserve this treatment
given that mis-management lost another good client. TM has dramatically shrunk
from $850 million in 2001 to now less than $200 million now…
Anyone have more information on this?
Yooter InterActive signs Lehigh University
May 28, 2009
Yooter Interactive signs Lehigh University for social media and search engine optimization.
Initially the primary focus of Yooter will be for the Lehigh University College of Education. Everything from increasing awareness of the program though social media to just overall better search engine rankings. Lehigh University will be utilizing Yooter’s services to help grow online.
Clearly this is a testament to the growth of social media and search engine optimization vs traditional methods of advertising.
Story is developing……..
Toys R Us buys FAO Schwarz
May 27, 2009
The world’s largest “dedicated” toy retailer Toys R Us Inc [TOY.UL] said on Wednesday it had acquired the FAO Schwarz brand for an undisclosed sum.
Dedicated is the keyword, as WalMart outsells Toys R Us by a wide margin.
FAO Schwarz will continue to operate under its own name until a further branding decision will be made.
Hill Holliday was handed the $90 million Toys R Us account, besting DDB and The Richards Group for the win back in 2007, it’s unknown if Hill Holliday is still in charge of the account as no reply from the advertising agency at publishing time.
It’s also unknown who FAO Schwarz’s advertising agency is, and what the status of the merger will be.
Key Questions:
Will Hill Holliday be in charge of FAO Schwarz?
Will FAO Schwarz remain a brand for long or be wrapped into Toys R Us ?
Will this purchase spark a review?
GSD&M Idea City lands Ace Hardware
May 27, 2009
Austin-based GSD&M Idea City was named national lead creative advertising agency for Ace Hardware according to The Statesman.
Ace Hardware has revenues of about 12 billion a year, so the guess is that the advertising budget for all of their 4,600 stores in the U.S has to be substantial.
This is actually a decent sized account for the Agency.
Arnold’s Ed Eskandarian sells Boston Red Sox
May 27, 2009
What do you do when you are on the top of an advertising agency and business is shrinking? You sell your ownership of the Boston Red Sox.
Arnold Worldwide Advertising mogul Ed Eskandarian is selling his minority stake in the Boston Red Sox to hedge fund manager Seth Klarman Boston.com is reporting
Arnold has been firing individuals all though this recession leaving staffers with no job and no way to feed their families, yet life on the top is going well. Need some cash? Sell the Boston Red Sox.
Evidently the dollar figure is so high that they didn’t want to embarrass Ed with publishing it.
“It could not be learned yesterday what price Eskandarian is getting for his share. Cammarata, reached by telephone yesterday, said he did not know what a Red Sox stake would fetch today. He would not say how much he sold his $12.5 million stake for: “It was a wonderful time and a very good investment.”
The Red Sox franchise has risen in value, to $833 million, according to rankings created by Forbes magazine each year. The Red Sox are the third most valuable team in baseball, behind the New York Yankees and the New York Mets.”
Life is hard on the top.
Internet Progress with TV
May 26, 2009
The Internet has really changed advertising so much in the past 3 years. When online videos started appearing in the 1990’s, they generally were slow to download due to the widespread use of dialup modems at the time, plus the overall lack of legal content online also hindered its growth.
But circa 2009 isn’t the same as circa 1996, a dozen years ago it would be illegal or impossible (depending on how you want to argue it) to place a full TV show online … embedded in a news article such as a episode of Stargate SG-1 included in this post.
The advantage to online video ads are pretty straightforward – the first being actual measurement rather than guesstimates. The problem with TV advertising is honestly you really don’t know what you are getting. Back in the 1960’s Star Trek was cancelled due to lack of ratings, but 1/2 a century later the francise is still going very strong, to the point of blockbuster openings and record ticket sales. The evidence is strong that the measurement system was broken at the time, and is still broken till today.
Shows are canceled, though they have a wide following, Jericho, King, Firefly and others in recent history have been removed from television programming, even though they did have a wide following.
For every person that hits the play button, it’s recorded and sent to content owners and counted as a view. They know when you started, they know if you completed the program, for the first time in history actual counts are being made rather than estimates that are generally well off the mark.
You most likely would see a massive change with television content if this is how it will accurately be measured online as compared to current standard TV measurement.
This is actually a big win for everyone, how good content is will actually now be properly measured as compared to taking a random sample of 100 people in a market of 2.5 million.
Advertisers will finally be able to know what shows to sponsors.
SEM Training Question
May 26, 2009
I got this via e-mail and didn’t have an answer, this women is looking for SEM training and appears was actually looking for a physical class. Does anyone know of one located in Los Angeles?
Below is a cut and paste of the e-mail:
Hello,
Wanted to know if you can refer me to a reputable on-site course/classes to
learn SEM and Social Marketing Media skills in the Los Angeles/Southern
California area and is it possible to learn these skills in 3-5 days or does it
require weeks of training/learning? Are they taught at junior colleges and do
you know of internships?I value your opinion and thank you in advance for your time and assistance.
Best regards,
Yolanda
Please leave comments if you know of one.
Video : Obama “We are out of money”
May 23, 2009
Evidently Drudge Report is running a headliner stating that Obama said “We are out of money” — There is no corresponding text to it other than this.
If you think for one second that this isn’t gonna wreck havoc on every industry including advertising then you are living in an illusionary world.
‘WE’RE OUT OF MONEY’
Sat May 23 2009 10:32:18 ETIn a sobering holiday interview with C-SPAN, President Obama boldly told Americans: “We are out of money.”
C-SPAN host Steve Scully broke from a meek Washington press corps with probing questions for the new president.
SCULLY: You know the numbers, $1.7 trillion debt, a national deficit of $11 trillion. At what point do we run out of money?
OBAMA: Well, we are out of money now. We are operating in deep deficits, not caused by any decisions we’ve made on health care so far. This is a consequence of the crisis that we’ve seen and in fact our failure to make some good decisions on health care over the last several decades.
So we’ve got a short-term problem, which is we had to spend a lot of money to salvage our financial system, we had to deal with the auto companies, a huge recession which drains tax revenue at the same time it’s putting more pressure on governments to provide unemployment insurance or make sure that food stamps are available for people who have been laid off.
So we have a short-term problem and we also have a long-term problem. The short-term problem is dwarfed by the long-term problem. And the long-term problem is Medicaid and Medicare. If we don’t reduce long-term health care inflation substantially, we can’t get control of the deficit.
So, one option is just to do nothing. We say, well, it’s too expensive for us to make some short-term investments in health care. We can’t afford it. We’ve got this big deficit. Let’s just keep the health care system that we’ve got now.
Along that trajectory, we will see health care cost as an overall share of our federal spending grow and grow and grow and grow until essentially it consumes everything…
SCULLY: When you see GM though as “Government Motors,” you’re reaction?
OBAMA: Well, you know – look we are trying to help an auto industry that is going through a combination of bad decision making over many years and an unprecedented crisis or at least a crisis we haven’t seen since the 1930’s. And you know the economy is going to bounce back and we want to get out of the business of helping auto companies as quickly as we can. I have got more enough to do without that. In the same way that I want to get out of the business of helping banks, but we have to make some strategic decisions about strategic industries…
SCULLY: States like California in desperate financial situation, will you be forced to bail out the states?
OBAMA: No. I think that what you’re seeing in states is that anytime you got a severe recession like this, as I said before, their demands on services are higher. So, they are sending more money out. At the same time, they’re bringing less tax revenue in. And that’s a painful adjustment, what we’re going end up seeing is lot of states making very difficult choices there…
SCULLY: William Howard Taft served on the court after his presidency, would you have any interest in being on the Supreme Court?
OBAMA: You know, I am not sure that I could get through Senate confirmation…
Developing…
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