So what’s the big bubble? Ad Agencies want to know.
March 17, 2010
Let’s face it, historically each recession has been brought out of via a big bubble. We were brought out of the 1991-1993 recession by the .com bubble. We got out of the 2001-2002 recession via the housing bubble. So what’s the next bubble? Ad Agencies all over the planet want to know…. mostly because now would be a great time to plaster that “we’re experts in advertising BUBBLE X” with BUBBLE X being the bubble of the decade.
So what exactly is Bubble X ?
Renewable Energy and Green Sustainability :
Some say green and renewable energy… but that’s a bubble that has been going on since the 1970’s … and we’re still hooked on burning dead dinosaur bones. Though I’ll admit we are closer now than ever to possibly moving off that, the chances are that it won’t be some “over night change” but rather a series of small improvements over the course of a few decades…. maybe faster if conditions on the ground change.. or slower if they don’t.
25 years ago, Honda CRX’s got 57 miles to the gallon … what happened?
Mobile Devices become your computer:
Let’s face it, people running around with a Blackberry, iPhone or Android are already seeing this happen. They are using their phone as their de-facto computer. E-mail, Camera phone, facebook updates, twitter updates, taking short videos and uploading them to Youtube… you get the idea.
What’s missing is a big screen, keyboard and mouse… as much as we like touch screens, most of us really don’t… it’s just better due to lack of space. At the rate of increase we have been seeing, this is possible… the problem is that we’re not sure if this is technically a bubble, we already have it .. and redfly’s sales aren’t actually flying off the shelves.
(yea it’s not a technical computer, it uses a blackberry phone as the computer, what you are seeing is literally a laptop shell around the blackberry).
So what else could be considered a bubble… something like “I need that house now” or “I need to mortgage my house to buy that .com stock before it goes public”
But what qualifies as a bubble?
Well first of all it has to create a bunch of jobs, meaning it can’t be monopolised by one company.. or else not enough people can get a piece of the action. Most likely won’t be a “bubble” when no one other than a handful of guys can get all the revenue.
The .com bubble happened because virtually anyone if they had the proper skillset could register their domain name, get a hosting account and bingo.. they are in business… just had to convince a few VC firms to throw money at them..
The housing bubble happened because anyone could start up a construction business… hence everyone was getting a piece of the action.
Hence why I am writing in this part it can’t be green or renewable, because most likely it’s going to be accompanied with a patent for something that will put a pin in that bubble, the same with the mobile devices… just one patent will stop the recovery from the recession.
So what can show up in the form of “something new” that there can be many players in?
During the last two bubbles the barriers to entry (in the beginning of the bubble) were sub $100,000.. IE: someone could build a circa 1990’s ecommerce site for under $100,000 … and contractors were building a $100,000 dollar home to resell at $250,000 or more…
So what can someone build, that can’t really be patented enough to STOP the bubble (remember Amazon.com’s 1 click patent), and could be done for under 100k?
Answer that… and you got yourself the next big thing.
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brntvlth
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