We must be the only country on earth that can state the unemployment rate is dropping without actually creating jobs
December 3, 2010
Unemployment in the United States has reached an epic level of 17% according to Federal Statistics.
17% is the latest figure on the U-6 measure of Unemployment and the most accurate of all unemployment rate measures, it is the only measure that counts underemployed as well. IE: the guy working Part Time at McDonald’s flipping hamburgers whereas 2 years ago he was a contractor making $50,000 a year.
That guy most likely will foreclose on his house as if he was unemployed due to the fact his mortgage and other bills were designed to fit the $50,0000 income, not the $9,000 income.
Underemployment in terms of part time work at a fast food joint when someone is looking for a real full time job are counted as unemployed according to the U-6 measure, as it should be.
Many of the 99 weekers are going to flipping hamburgers soon, and they will vanish off the U-3 standard (the one that is often stated in the media, but will still appear on the U-6).
You got it people, in the next few weeks as the Unemployment benefits expire for several million individuals, the standard unemployment rate will count those people as “employed” or “not in the work force” hence making it artificially appear as if they are employed.
The bogus part of this is that it’s not like these people have jobs, the ones that have their benefits cut just won’t get an unemployment check. So they are “not a problem anymore” as far as the statistics of the U-3 is concerned.
Enjoy the new reality, in about 2 weeks at least 3 million Americans are going to tossed off the Unemployment lines…. they won’t have a job, nor will they have income… but they are not unemployed.
The U-3 unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 9.3% from current 9.8% when reporting is done in January or February.
We must be the only country on earth that can state the unemployment rate is dropping without actually creating jobs.
Republicans tell 1.3 Million Americans to F-Off
July 2, 2010
House Passes Bill, But Senate Republican Filibuster to Pass Extension Bill Holds 1.3 Million Americans to Lose Benefits.
This is complete garbage. The primary reason is that this will “bring down the unemployment rate”,
as noted earlier once someone loses their unemployment check, unemployed people are technically not unemployed as per the “official” U-3 measure.
This will shave off a full percentage point, if not more, from the unemployment rate. The BLS then can claim these people are not in the labor pool. In other words they have no job, but they are not unemployed.
Enjoy the new reality.
This isn’t job creation, this is a disaster in the making. Once the government starts fudging numbers to this level is the exact moment you have to think we are in far worse shape than what is being reported.
Most likely the true unemployment rate is near 20% . Especially when you count all the Engineers and Lawyers working at McDonalds part time.
The chances are the Republicans are doing this to make Obama look bad, because clearly he couldn’t save those people and now that’s another 1.3 million people (and their family’s and dependants) that are going to be voting for anyone but whoever is in office.
I have never seen a party work so hard to make a mess of things so they could get in power. Perhaps they should stop playing politics for once and remember that there are children that are dependent on their parents putting food on the table with that unemployment check or a mortgage to pay for a roof over those kids heads.
This is a tragic development, and honestly these Republicans in the Senate are UN-American.
Unemployment “to exceed” 20%
January 7, 2010
Evidently there is a nasty rumour floating that the U-6 measurement from the http://www.bls.gov site will reflect a “greater than 20%” figure for the upcoming report. Currently it’s most recent report is from November 2009 and the next report isn’t due out yet, this is the one is question. We were told “don’t be shocked to see something in the 20% or greater” area.
In many industries, such as marketing and ad agency jobs the unemployment rate has already exceeded that figure.
The U-6 has been pushed more and more recently as the standard for measuring unemployment due to the number of individuals that are being dropped off the U-3 not because they found a job, but rather because they have been unemployed for such an extended period of time that their benefits have run out, hence counting them as employed, though they have no job.
In other words, the U-3 is becoming less and less accurate during the great recession.
Recently we have become more and more vocal about our opinion that the U-3 needs to be substituted with the U-6 due to this glaring error in unemployment reporting.
Hopefully this is just a rumor and unemployment hasn’t reached those figures, but looking around… I wouldn’t say this rumor is too off.
Every day images are drawing more and more parallels.
CNBC : Tribble was right about unemployment
November 23, 2009
Evidently CNBC is coming to the same conclusion we did nearly a year ago that the U-6 is the real unemployment rate standard.
The problem is that the U-3 doesn’t count in the millions of people where their unemployment benefits have ran out, hence the U-3 is counting them as employed… even though they have no job! (go figure).
Also the U-3 doesn’t factor in the Accountant that had to take a part time job at McDonalds flipping hamburgers because he cannot find a real full time job, however the U-6 does.
Meaning that the real unemployment rate is isn’t 10.x percent, it’s actually at the great depression level of 17.5%.
We said this a year ago, CNBC is saying it now… as did one of the federal reserve heads.
In other words people, we are being had. It’s bad people, really bad. Unemployment is perhaps the biggest threat we have to an economic recovery… because let’s face it.. unemployed people don’t buy houses or cars.
Also worth noting, we don’t think this is going to recover unless we have another bubble… something that CNBC said today… and we said a year ago
From CNBC:
“”To me there’s no easy solution here,” says Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. “Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you’re not going to have growth. That’s the sad truth.”"
Go figure… we need another bubble people.. and the stimulus spending went into roads and bridges.. not another bubble.
Enjoy the new reality.
17.5% US Unemployment Rate
November 6, 2009
There’s a bug in the federal government formula for unemployment that is becoming more and more apparent as the current economic crisis continues.
The fact is according to Washington, you are employed even if you don’t have a job. The current U-3 Standard counts individuals that have completely lost their unemployment benefits and still not employed as currently employed and happy.
But according to John Doe’s measure, he’s unemployed until he finds a job.
The current unemployment rate is 17.5% , not 10.2% according to the official measure of the U-6 rate. That’s great depression levels circa 1932, during the depression the unemployment rate eventually hit 25%. Based on our current “growth” rate we might reach that level within the next 900 days.
We have argued time and time again that the U-6 needs to be the official rate.
It’s the closest standard we have (officially) to how it was counted in the 1930′s during the great depression. It’s also a much closer picture of what reality is on the ground. The fact that the U-3 drops people from the unemployment rate when they run out of benefits, not when the find a job is reason enough.
To make matters even more interesting, the government is close to calling the recession over, technically that’s correct.. in reality it’s not even close to being right, because of what they are using as the standard.
In this rough example: Let’s say that in 2006 the economic output of the US was 100, in 2007 it was 90, 2008 it was 70 and 2009 it’s 50. Then early in 2010 it goes to 51 (this is done actually every 90 days, not every year).
Technically on paper the recession is over, we moved up from 50 to 51…. but in reality we are still at half of our economic output of 2006.
90 days is not enough, to mark a recession should be spread out over 2 year marks, not 90 days marks.. to count unemployment it needs to be the U-6 not the U-3.
We are completely being lied to. This recession isn’t close to being over and the unemployment rate is nearly double what is being reported.
Enjoy the lie you are being fed. The problem is that businesses don’t believe the statistics, because if they did they would think the recession is over and be on hiring binge, clearly that’s not happening.
BLS.GOV : Unemployment is 17%
October 21, 2009
The BLS.GOV site is reporting that the Unemployment rate has reached 17% in the US via the U-6 Standard. This standard is what was roughly used during the 1930′s, squarely placing us at 1931 in terms of the unemployment rate. By 1934 that rate jumped to a full 25%, meaning that 1 out of every 4 people was without a job, so at current job loss rates, within 900 days we will be at that 25% unemployment level. How do you market and advertise in such a recessionary environment?
We argued earlier this year that the U-6 needs to be the measure rather than the U-3, We were criticized as being off the wall, until a Federal Reserve head stated the same thing, hence validating our position that we have argued for months for.
Yes we were even called Peter Schiff (like it was an insult)
If you want to know who Peter is, here is a video dated 2006…. notice he was right then… in the middle of the housing boom and made Arthur Laffer look like an idiot within 18 months of it’s filming.
The point is that 17% is ugly, really ugly… and the chances are it will go to 20% or higher unless something stops it…. last time it was WWII … who knows what it will be this time….
Omnicom : We save $116,000 for each person we fire
September 8, 2009
Jim Edwards at B|Net outlined a report that showed that Omnicom saves $116,000 a year for each person the ad agency fires.
And even after firing thousands of people, the revenue is falling faster than staff and operating costs. Meaning that the chances are layoffs will continue and even expand as the business continues to collapse in the current environment.
This is exactly how management views their creative department and the employees of the advertising agency. You cost them $116,000 a year, are you making more than $116,000 a year for them? Could they get someone in the door at $50,000 and do your job? Could they get someone in the door at $100,000 and do the job? Could they fire you and just offload parts of your job to a few people and just save the $116,000?
That is what it’s coming down to, and if you think otherwise you are seriously mistaken. You cost them money, and they are looking to cut costs meaning you are directly in the line of fire.
Amazing stuff, it’s never been this bad, and it’s expected to get somewhat worse before it becomes better. The current projections have unemployment reaching 10% to 12% according to the U-3 and nearly 25% according to the U-6. That’s the great depression level people. Even now a debate rages over the standard the government uses to measure unemployment.
Well at least most of us don’t live in Detroit, where the unemployment rate is now exceeding 30%
Detroit Unemployment reaches 30%
August 27, 2009
The Detroit Unemployment rate has now exceeded the Great Depression. It is currently at 30%… and that is measuring it by the U-3 (which undercounts unemployment dramatically).
People were wondering if the Advertising Agencies of Detroit will ever recover? Well this settles it, that city is never coming back in any reasonable time frame.
With an unemployment rate exceeding that of the great depression of 25%, this tells you that the city is in deep trouble barring any miracle.
Federal Reserve Head : Unemployment is 16%
August 27, 2009
Recently we had a discussion where two individuals disagreed with us stating that the real unemployment is whatever the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics pushes out is the official rate.
To be fair, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses several measures, from U-1 to the U-6 with the official rate being the U-3 of just under 10% unemployment currently.
This is where it got interesting, yesterday the Atlanta head of the Federal Reserve stated the same thing we did. That the unemployment rate is 16.x percent.
In other words, what our thoughts were is identical to what some ranking economists in the Federal Reserve feel as well.
So Jon and Daniel Reeves, how do you defend yourself now? Or you cant?
Amazon.Com to buy Netflix
July 14, 2009
Amazon.Com to buy Netflix. Rumors pushed up the stock by 2.63% in afternoon trading as word on the street spread that Netflix is going to get purchased by Amazon.Com
Both companies refused to comment (a good sign that a deal is in the works). However some employees have been slightly more vocal.
“The first thing Amazon.Com is gonna do is fire 1/2 of us” stated a Netflix employee. “They don’t need 2 accounting departments, they don’t need 2 marketing departments” and they really don’t need 2 advertising agencies.
This is perhaps the worst possible time for the predicted layoffs to take place as unemployment is averaging 10% (U-3) and 17% (U-6) across the nation.
Recognized by Advertising Age Magazine as top Power 150 news outlet for Advertising and Marketing.
Recognized and listed in Google News. Don't stress, we're Satire
Ad Agency Advertising
