Expect Mass Deflation to Mass Inflation within months

You heard it here first, in October 2008 everyone was looking at the great depression as the model, and rightfully so because if left unchecked we were heading down that path.

However the federal reserve, not any longer tied to the gold standard, had more options than it’s 1934 counterpart, meaning creating money out of thin air was on the table, or commonly called “printing money”. It will reach the point where within the next 8 to 12 months, expect to see advertising out there regarding how company X has “stable pricing” for it’s products.

Out of the two horrible solutions, 1934 vs 1974 the Federal Reserve choose the latter. As noted earlier they printed off a ton of money, to the tune of 4 trillion US dollars. The US at any given moment over the past few years had roughly 1 trillion in printed circulation…. but they printed off nearly 4 trillion think about that percentage change. Now most of the US wealth isn’t in printed cash or bank accounts, most of US wealth is locked up in your house and your car. You may live in a house that is worth about $200,000, but do you have $200,000 in cash in your pocket?

If those printed dollars were spread evenly you would be looking at triple digit inflation, but it wasn’t spread evenly, it was loaned to banks that refused to loan it to companies and individuals. Hence slowing the rate of how fast the inflation hit, but it’s hitting.

The reason gas prices have been moving upwards recently is because speculators have been been given TARP funded (IE: your tax money) loans to make gas futures buys.. it’s not because demand went up, it actually went down… it’s because more money has been thrown at the energy market.

$4.25 a gallon (like we experienced last summer) may not show up overnight, but it will show up again… most likely within 12 months… meaning brace for $100 dollar fillups.

See the problem was that we had general deflation, so to hedge against it dollars were printed and handed out to individuals that would speculate on driving up commonly costs to stop deflation in it’s tracks. Gas touches everything. You can’t get a product to Walmart to sell without a truck delivering it from a factory, hence the transportation costs have to be increased when fuel prices increase. Stopping deflation in the process and driving up prices on the very vulnerable 10% of Americans standing in the unemployment line.

Mark my words on this one, inflation is about to hit, and it’s about to hit really bad.

This women is burning German money directly prior to WWII, because it’s “cheaper” to burn money than to use that money to buy firewood.

inflation-1923-24womanstuffsherfurnacewithmoneyadsdderfriedrich-ebert-stiftung

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Razorfish shutting down offices right and left

Agency Spy is reporting that Digital Advertising Agency Razorfish is shutting down offices right and left, Leaving their Webcams on a 24 hour loop to appear as if the offices are still running.

Going “Remote” evidently means that the existing clients will be shifted out of the now closed offices and moved to offices that are still somewhat staffed.

Why a digital firms needs multiple locations is somewhat confusing, it’s not exactly like you can’t FTP in if you are connected to the internet no matter what city you are located in.

Regardless, we wish the people that got the pink slip the best… it’s a rough economy out there. Eventually we will all be able to celebrate good times.

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Interview with Matt Van Hoven AKA: Agency Spy

Matt Van Hoven is one of the most polarizing figures in the advertising agency blogging world. He freely admits that he never worked at an ad agency, yet he sometimes breaks some of the most polarizing agency dirt and wins the industry has ever seen.

It seems that every layoff, every lost account, every “lost pension” plan that develops in the industry you can find it first at Agency Spy with the author generally being Matt.

So here’s the interview :)

Question: How the hell do you get all these leads?

agencyspy: From a healthy mix of anonymous tips, which I chase down to having drinks with people that know to generally being a really skeptical person. The community helps me out a lot, it’s just my job to dig into what they give me.

Question: You run the popular twitter feed @adagencylayoffs Do you find twitter to be a reliable source of information, or more of just an initial contact that requires extensive followups?

agencyspy: Well first off, the layoff feed is half the equation. Lately I’ve focused a lot more time on @agencyspy because I was getting replies saying things like, “@adagencylayoffs is the most depressing feed I follow” etc. And that’s no fun. But nowadays Twitter is both an info provider and a relationship builder for AgencySpy. People DM me tips just as much as they e-mail or use the anonymous tips box, which is cool – it allows me to get more info right off the bat. I could write a book about the value of Twitter in general, so this is just the surface.

Question: What are your thoughts on Adage and Adweek?

agencyspy: oh boy, where do I begin. I think that they both do really well at what they do, which is just so different than AgencySpy. So as far as being traditional publications go, they have some challenges ahead of them. Both have had staff cuts, both still have print editions and just a ton of work to do and few people to do it. That said, moving forward they’ll have to adapt – and quickly. But they beat us to the punch sometimes and that always ticks me off…and makes me work harder.

Question : We get our weekly giggle at the “the week in advertising” videos… is that your favorite part of the job?

agencyspy: In some ways, yes. It gets me away from the desk and lets me use the left brain for a bit the secret to the show is that we kinda make things up as we go (as if you couldn’t tell) I just pick some ads I liked that week and kinda make up the script as I go. I heard somewhere the first rule of TV is to stay on script, so being that we’re all about doing things our own way, Pip, Weston and I just make up little quips as we go. Our 12 viewers seem to like it.

Question: Do you think the holding company model is flawed, or it’s successful during a recession?

agencyspy: Completely screwed up. I was talking to a very savvy source of mine about this very subject and we both agree that unless your business is tied directly to the client’s, you can’t hope to win these days. Holding companies have a whole other set of concerns, ie stock holders, that independent agencies just don’t have. The focus must always be the client’s business, the work. To me that just seems like the logical answer, but I know very little about how the HC model really works and I’m sure people much smarter than me will take issue with that remark. But when all else fails, I say get back to fundamentals – inside a holding company agency it’s just harder to do that.

Question: After reporting on the industry did it change your thoughts on Advertising? Do you find advertising enjoyable or far more shady?

agencyspy: Well I tend to look at advertising from a consumer’s perspective, so I tend to have a different perspective than a lot of my readers – which is good, it fosters discussion whether I say something stupid or salient. That said, I am an advertising addict – my roommates get pissed that they pay for DVR because I don’t let them fast forward through ads. So no matter how screwed up things get I will always love it – the challenge of advertising is much greater than that of TV and movies IMO, because you have 15 or 30 or 60 seconds to entertain, convince, please etc and that’s it. Well, depending on how much ad space your buyer purchased. Anyway, the agencies that don’t have as much internal drama tend to do better work and to me that’s a good thing – it allays my skepticism about the industry – at least until the next scandal pops up.

And of course the obligatory photo :)
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Is this is a sex-based recession?

There are some facts about this recession that are somewhat unsettling. And it’s being reflected with some recent TV and internet advertising. One of the major under-reported statistics about the current recession is that it’s mostly males that have been receiving the pink slips. Industries such as construction (90% male) and banking (80% male) and manufacturing (75% male) are the ones that have been hit the hardest. Chances though it’s not just because all the women bosses are part of the secret I hate men organization.

In fact the unemployment statistics are showing that the adult male unemployment rate is now at 10% , whereas for adult women it’s only 7%.

This is a dramatic change, in fact some segments of the male population are experiencing an unemployment rate that is reminiscent of the great depression. Males in their mid 20′s face an unemployment rate of 16.7% As far as our research goes, The last time we had an unemployment rate in that age and sex group was 1932, in the middle of the great depression.

The problem outlined is that men were more likely to be employed in industries that have taken as severe beating, but we suspect the reasons are far deeper than that. There is a very good chance this is going to be a long term problem as the layoffs continue to be more and more aimed at males.

Honestly we might be looking at a fundamental change of workplace and family dynamics as we are seeing more and more the “Mom” report to work, and the “Dad” home with the kids.

Thoughts?

This coffee pot was found at CP+B in December of 2008.
layoff-coffee-pot

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Mia Washington to star in reality TV show

The women that had twins with two differing dads is going to be starring in a reality TV show from what we have heard. Mia Washington, twins, two dads, 7 minutes apart.

Truly WTF, a cheating women getting double impregnated twice. The ratings will skyrocket.

Seriously there is money to be made off this cheating women. If Octomom or whatever her name is can get one, this women can as well.

We’re digging for a good photo…… check back soon….

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#wolframalpha : already labeled a “failure”

wolframalpha isn’t Google, it’s not a Google killer, in fact it’s not even Wikipedia as Wikipedia has more useful information on it.

The media went hog-wild promoting wolframalpha, just like they did promoting Cuil … remember Cuil ? It was so bad that every newspaper on earth was liking to Cuil with the keyword “Google Killer” … want to see what that Google bomb did?

As someone that has been doing online marketing for over a dozen years, I feel that in it’s current form, wolframalpha is a failure of epic proportions. The problem is two fold:

1 – all + more information is already available on Google, just click wonder wheel or use Google Finance or use Google weather … the point I am trying to make is that the information is already there… you want a wolframalpha page… build an RSS reader….

2 – That leads to the second problem… there is no barrier to entry… anyone can create this with an RSS reader pulling everything from Google… . or if you wish… have a Google coder wipe out a “BETA” site in 3 hours… using all the information they have already.

In other words, there is no barrier to entry…. this site is already a failure… it’s just taking the media way to long to figure it out….

I’m all for competition for Google, but Wolframalpha isn’t it.

failure

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GM notifies ad agencies they’re out of business

GM has notified GM notifies 1,100 dealers they’re out of business. This will run havoc throughout the advertising agency world as many smaller and mid sized agencies depend on the dealerships for direct mailings, billboards, flyers… etc etc.. … just overall advertising for each local market.

These dealers are now facing a complete shut down, and because of this many will most likely fail if they cannot substitute it with a Honda, Toyota, Kia or whatever. In other words, the chances are not just the dealers will go under, but a whole bunch of advertising agencies as well.

The auto industry spends massive amounts of money on Advertising, for example, in the Chrysler bankruptcy document they listed BBDO / Omnicom Group as their second largest creditor. This is high and above any other firms that helped with R&D, car parts, etc etc..

Spectacular fireworks people, this is going to get ugly.

fireworks1

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R/GA fires dozens of people

Agency Spy is reporting that R/GA is canning people… and what was hit was New York City.

“Due to the economic downturn affecting companies and industries worldwide, R/GA has decided to make a tough decision and reduce our headcount,” said the agency in an e-mailed statement. “It was the financially responsible action to take at this time. Only the NY office will be impacted.”

We tend to lose track of R/GA sometimes, once in a while it’s because we can’t use the websites that R/GA creates or the R/GA site is down.

R/GA is facing the recession like the rest of us, but some firms tend to thrive if they can show a positive ROI for the client…. in other cases they can’t show that ROI… and start to lose market share and revenue.

We wish them the best.

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EU uses Intel and Microsoft for Revenue via Fines

Intel has to pay the $1.45 billion dollar fine within three months, the Commission said, adding that the money would go to the EU’s central budget, “thus reducing the contributions that Member States pay to the EU.” CNET reported

The EU’s stimulus package is fining US companies? Germany and and other EU nations have been hesitant on using their own revenue to fund a stimulus package, but now they found a new source! American companies!

Clearly the EU Anti-Trust suit is aimed squarely at foreign companies to bankroll the EU’s dwindling account balances.

This is not the proper way to raise revenue…. what’s next? Apple’s iphone marketshare is too big?

Enjoy the new economy.
08s

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